Will there be a budget deal? Not if Americans for Tax Reform's Grover Norquist has his way -- or, at least, there won't be a deal that includes tax increases (or even just letting the Bush tax cuts expire and returning to Clinton-era tax rates), though it's pretty clear that there's no way the budget problem will ever be addressed seriously without raising revenue (spending cuts alone won't cut it, particularly given how unpopular they are).
I haven't been a fan of President Obama's "deficit commission" -- it proposed some sensible reforms, such as ending various tax loopholes and subsidies, but its overall focus was on keeping government far too small, that is, on advancing a moderate Republican agenda without regard for progressive concerns -- but it's hard not to like, or at least to appreciate, the straight-talking (renegade Republican) Alan Simpson for occasionally telling it like it is:
If you are in thrall to Grover Norquist, this country hasn't got a prayer.
Okay, it's an old quote. He said that in February (though it was reported yesterday). But it still applies. And the problem, clearly, is that almost all Republicans are "in thrall" to Norquist.