Late last week a lot of people were talking about Paul Ryan possibly deciding to run for the GOP presidential nomination. It's gotten a little quiet since then but I guess he's thinking about it. Apparently he hasn't ruled it out.
I must say that I don't see it. I think Ryan should focus on holding on to his congressional seat given how unpopular his budget is proving to be with its proposal to gut Medicare as I've written.It was nice to see Jonathan Bernstein at The Washington Post make the case I was at least thinking about when I decided that Ryan's candidacy was a non-starter if he's smart and a real long-shot if he isn't.
Bernstein writes:
There's not a lot of polling on Ryan that I can find, but a recent Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin (you know, the state he's from) had him at 41/46 favorable/unfavorable, so in his home state he's fairly well known and not very well liked. Members of the House are almost unknown to the American people, and while pundits and political professionals have been fairly obsessed with Ryan for the last few months, most Americans don't pay close attention to politics, and probably know little about him.Of course, the other obvious problem with a Ryan nomination is that he’s best known for a massively unpopular Medicare plan, and nominating him would be a fairly insane choice, as it would constitute a massive double down on the plan by the GOP. I’m sure there are plenty of Republicans who find that idea enticing, but presumably there are quite a few who aren’t completely meshugenah. Political scientists usually argue that issues and candidates are usually not all that important as fundamentals such as economic performance. But Ryancare is a different matter altogether: Nominating Ryan would make the election an argument over the GOP's least popular policy proposal, instead of a referendum on the economy, which would be the GOP’s best chance of winning.It doesn't hurt Ryan to have these sorts of rumors floating around, but there's every chance that he'd peak the day he announced. He has a great position right now; I think he'd be very foolish to jeopardize it with a (very) longshot presidential run.
Yeah, I'm with Bernstein on this one. I particularly like his comment that Ryan would peak the day he announced, which is another way of saying that many people may fancy the idea but the reality is likely to fall far short.
For what it's worth, I'm also just not feelin' it with Ryan. A decided lack of royal jelly, but, then again, the whole field is pretty flat.
If he does get in I'm sure I'll have a lot more to say, but I would be surprised for all the reasons Mr. Bernstein offers.
On the other hand, if he did jump in, it wouldn't be the first time a prospective candidate's ego trumped all reason (pun intended).
(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)