Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak and his National Front government that has ruled the country for 54 years are exhibiting acute anxiety as new elections approach.
A demonstration on Saturday in Kuala Lumpur by a coalition of opposition and civil society groups demanding electoral reform was dealt with by the authorities far more harshly than the situation appears to have warranted.
The authorities' swift recourse to riot squads, volleys of tear gas, water cannon and the arrest of 1,600 people, is being widely seen as evidence of the National Front's fear it may be defeated in elections that must be held by 2013.
At the same time, reports from Paris say French prosecutors are near the end of their investigation of allegedly corrupt payments of $200 million involved in the $2-billion sale to Malaysia of Scorpene submarines by French arms manufacturer DCNS in 2002.
Najib was defence minister at the time and the $200 million was paid to a company controlled by some of his closest associates and advisers.
There is also the question of whether the murder of Mongolian model and translator, Altantuya Sharriibuu, the mistress of Najib's chief negotiator on the submarine deal, is linked to the scandal.
Two of Najib's bodyguards have been convicted of murdering Altantuya. Their appeal against their conviction and sentence that they be hanged is due to be heard shortly after a twoyear delay.
With these storm clouds gathering it is understandable that Najib may be fretful as he contemplates his first election since taking over as prime minister in April 2009 and assuming the leadership of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the dominant party in the National Front governing coalition.
Najib took over from Abdullah Badawi, who oversaw the ruling coalition, when in the 2008 elections it lost for the first time its two-thirds majority in parliament.
Provincial elections also saw parties of the opposition People's Alliance win control of five of Malaysia's 13 states.
Abdullah's lacklustre performance and departure followed a massive opposition rally in 2007 by a group called Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections, which also organized Saturday's march in Kuala Lumpur.
The group contends Malaysia's elections are far from free and fair because of inadequate voter registration lists, widespread fraud and gerrymandering of constituencies.
It wants wholesale reform of the process, including guaranteed access to government-linked media for opposition parties.
The Najib government's anxiety about this demonstration has been evident for several weeks. The human rights organization Amnesty International has described the response to the protest and the events leading up to it as "the worst campaign of repression we've seen in decades."
Over the last two weeks police have detained more than 200 people nationwide for trying to promote the rally, which was banned by the authorities.
Early last week, there was an unusual intervention by Malaysia's king, Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin, who got demonstration leaders to agree to hold their rally in Kuala Lumpur's Merdeka Stadium.
The Najib government at first agreed to this compromise, but then changed its mind and reinforced the ban. Merdeka Stadium management said the facility was not available because it is still being renovated after a Justin Bieber concert in April.
To reinforce the ban, police cordoned off the centre of Kuala Lumpur on Friday evening, sealed off roads, closed railways stations and deployed water cannon trucks in readiness.
However, somehow thousands of people evaded these attempts to thwart them.
Exactly how many people took part is unclear. The authorities say it was only 6,000 or so. The organizers say it was 50,000. Independent observers put the number at from 10,000 to 20,000.
What is not in dispute is that they were given no leeway and were met with volleys of tear gas and chemicallaced water from the start.
Among those injured was Anwar Ibrahim, leader of the opposition People's Alliance, who warned the Najib government will face an "hibiscus revolution" -the hibiscus is Malaysia's national flower -unless there is reform.
Najib's state of mind is evident in his response.
"Don't doubt our strength," he said. "If we want to create chaos, we can. UMNO [his party] has three million members. If we gather one million members, it is more than enough. We can conquer Kuala Lumpur."
jmanthorpe@vancouversun.com
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